How Good Is Your Ability to Predict?


At the start of this new year, as you set goals and make grand plans, I’m going to give you some advice that at first glance might not sound terribly motivating. For context, I have never claimed to be Mr Motivator. But I firmly believe that getting to the heart of any matter and discovering the truth about it, and thinking accurately, that it is incredibly motivating and useful because you can now plan, and act based on reality not wishful thinking.

Ok, here’s my New Year’s advice:

“Stop pretending like you have everything figured out and this time it’s going to work.”

Throughout your life, you’ve had countless experiences and learned this lesson a thousand ways. When you first attempted to ride a bike, drive a car, ask someone out on a date, apply for a job, try out for a sports team, sometimes things worked and sometimes they didn’t.

Yet, we all fool ourselves by thinking, from today forward, everything is just going to work. Listen, there is nothing wrong with hopeful optimism. You need a certain degree of it in order to try anything new. If nothing ever worked out, why would you get out of bed in the morning.

But we must acknowledge the best-case scenario is actually an outlier. The very best is great when it happens, but it is not the most-likely scenario. By being realistic about all possible outcomes, you are best positioned to respond to a wide range of circumstances and to enter each possibility with a clear head and peace of mind.

Throughout her life, Maya Angelou said she was, “Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst, and unsurprised by anything in between.” Leave it to Maya Angelou to write something more profound in 14 words than I will write in this entire newsletter. Nevertheless, let me continue to drive home this point less succinctly as you set your goals for 2025.

When I set a goal or try something new in the practice, I’m always optimistic and picture the best-case scenario, but over the years I’ve slowly learned the lesson that most things don’t work as well as I would like, especially in the beginning. So now, while still being an optimist at heart, I don’t allow myself to be fooled, and I fully expect things not to work, and for other new problems to be created as well. So like Maya Angelou, I’m not surprised by any of this. Instead, I actively go looking for faults and problems with my plan so I can pre-empt some of those problems happening and know how to quickly deal with any of those that do arise.

One of the core leadership abilities is the ability to predict. You have to be able to look at a course of action and predict what are all the possible outcomes as well as understand what is most likely to happen. And it’s critical that you think and predict what is likely to happen not just initially but two, three, four steps down the line. This is a huge part of what I help Mastermind members with our calls. I help them look at a situation from multiple angles so that we can predict better, and be prepared for all eventualities so that we can get the best outcome no matter what happens.

Even when the best-case scenario comes to pass, it rarely unfolds exactly as planned. Some choices create unanticipated consequences that we have to deal with.

Your business is no different. Everything is connected, so when setting your goals be sure to think through all the steps and effects that are likely to come from it. Because my guess is your goals are not just financial. You have targets for your business, and you want to feel that you are growing, but you probably also want to have a happy team (who are also growing and fulfilled by their work), you want to feel good about your work and the way your practice is set up, you want to have a good life outside your practice, you want to have strong relationships with the people you love, you want to be fit and healthy, you want to be able to take a certain amount of time off and so on. Yes, you need to focus on achieving a goal, but you also need to keep the big, broad picture in mind when you set your goals so that you can be confident you are chasing the right goals with your eyes wide open and you’re not going to be ‘surprised’ by any unintended consequences.

Refuse to be surprised by all this, and you’ll be ahead of at least two-thirds of the competition. Do it consistently and without emotion, and you’ll rise to the top 5%, up here where the air is rarefied. To your success!